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Energy Prices (mid September 2013)

Electricity: Coal prices are predicted to fall as the Drummond coal mine in Columbia is preparing to restart output. Development of Europe’s largest tidal array has been approved in Scotland beginning with a 9MW array, expanding to 86 MW when complete.

A long-term forecast of a cold autumn and winter and the reported economic recovery in the UK are set to shore up prices for the coming months, while 2000 MW of gas and coal fired plant are due to close down by March, pushing prices up.

Gas: Late September is forecast to be unseasonably warm, which could suppress gas demand. Petronas has signed a deal to receive Qatari LNG, 1.14 million tonnes over five years.

Norwegian maintenance is likely to affect the continent more than the UK, but if European storate sites fail to fully fill in time the UK may struggle to import gas through the main interconnecter over the winter.

Summary position: 

Oil $110.07/barrel

Coal $84.65/MT

EUA 14 €5.61/TCO2

Gas 66.95p/th Oct 13

Gas 66.9p/th Apr 14

Electricity £51.68/MWh Oct 13

Electricity £52.43/MWh Apr 14